2010 FBS Positional Analysis: Wide Receivers

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - They are often the brashest of players, but it seems these days those who play with a swagger elevate their game and by nature their teams to new heights. Whether they go by wide receiver, flanker or any other name, these players can change the momentum of a game with one play.

Here are the top wideouts heading into the 2010 season.

A.J. GREEN, GEORGIA

Perhaps the top "difference maker" on the outside in all of the FBS, Green can do it all. At 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, there isn't much to dislike about this Bulldog. Plenty of speed and great hands separate him from the rest of field. A two-time All-SEC First Team selection, Green is coming off a 2009 campaign in which he hauled in 53 balls for 808 yards and six touchdowns. Those numbers were slightly off his amazing freshman season (56 receptions for 963 yards and eight TDs), but a lot of that had to do with injuries and the Bulldogs' lack of consistency as a whole last year (8-5). If Georgia is to return to SEC glory in 2010, expect Green to be the main reason why.

MICHAEL FLOYD, NOTRE DAME

The definition of a big play wideout. The Irish have something special in Floyd, who will probably jump ship to the NFL following this season. With great size (6-3, 220) and athleticism, it is awfully tough to contain him down the field. Last season, he played in just seven games before breaking his collarbone, and still finished with 44 receptions for 795 yards and nine TDs. There will be a new QB in South Bend to go with a new coaching staff and new system, but if Brian Kelly is to bring the Irish back to prominence, Floyd is the kind of building block to start with.

JONATHAN BALDWIN, PITTSBURGH

Showed immediate promise as a freshman in 2008, averaging 22.4 yards per catch on 18 receptions. Baldwin took it to a higher level as a sophomore, grabbing 57 balls for 1,111 yards and eight TDs. At 6-5, 225 pounds, he has the size that keeps NFL scouts drooling. Whether he takes the next step and becomes a household name this year depends a lot on the quarterback situation at Pittsburgh. Baldwin enjoyed great success with a veteran signal-caller last season and will need to form a solid foundation early on with the Panthers' new QB if he is to put up big numbers again. Pittsburgh will once again rely heavily on the run, but when the team goes vertical, Baldwin will be the target more often than not.

JULIO JONES, ALABAMA

Yes, the Crimson Tide won the national championship last season, but it took the extremely gifted Jones quite awhile to get going and be a regular contributor. The 6-4, 211-pounder struggled with injuries in 2009, after being named the SEC Freshman of the Year and earning All-American honors in 2008. His 24 receptions for 331 yards and three TDs this past season certainly aren't the kind of numbers that jump out at you, but, make no mistake, when he's healthy, he rivals the best in the game. The Crimson Tide have some holes to fill this year, but the offensive side of the ball will remain potent. A devastating ground game led by reigning Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram should open things up for Jones down the field, providing he is able to suit up all season long.

RYAN BROYLES, OKLAHOMA

Broyles won't scare defenders with his size (5-11, 183), but still creates mismatches. The Sooners had a down year in 2009, but Broyles didn't. Despite a quarterback change resulting in the loss of the then-reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Broyles still put up huge numbers, hauling in a school-record 89 balls for 1,120 yards and a school-record-tying 15 TDs, dwarfing his 2008 season, when he set the school record for receiving yards by a freshman (687). The OU offense will be much better this season with a "veteran" sophomore QB under center. The Sooners will return to national prominence in 2010 and Broyles will have a big hand in that.

JAMES CLEVELAND, HOUSTON

Cleveland has finally found a home at Houston. A former Iowa Hawkeye who spent a season at Trinity Valley Community College, the 6-1, 205-pounder settled in with the Cougars last season and formed an immediate connection with standout QB Case Keenum while being tabbed the 2009 Conference USA Newcomer of the Year. Did Cleveland benefit from the system in Houston? Who cares. His first year couldn't have gone much better, as he caught just about everything thrown his way, resulting in 104 receptions for 1,214 yards and 14 TDs. He has the kind of size to be effective at the next level and another big year in the FBS ranks could have him climb the draft boards at a rapid pace. Houston will be in the hunt for the Conference USA crown, and look for the Keenum-to-Cleveland connection to be front and center along the way.

JERMAINE KEARSE, WASHINGTON

There hasn't been much to cheer about as a Washington fan the last couple of years, but the potential of the 6-2, 200-pound Kearse is certainly reason for optimism in 2010. An All-Pac-10 Second Team selection as a sophomore, Kearse led the team in receptions (50), receiving yards (866) and TDs (eight) in 2009. He has one of the game's top quarterbacks in Jake Locker back in the fold, so look for another increase in numbers. Whether his production helps the rebuilding Huskies add to their modest five-win total from 2009 remains to be seen, but the talented Kearse must be accounted for at all times.

JAMES RODGERS, OREGON STATE

This talented Beaver is overshadowed by his little brother (running back Jacquizz Rodgers) in Corvallis, but is certainly a game-changer in his own right. A versatile player, the elder Rodgers is one of the Pac-10's elite wideouts, who doesn't mind getting involved in the ground game, return game, or as a blocker, despite his diminutive size (5-7, 188). Last season, Rodgers was an All-Pac-10 First Team selection after setting a school record with 91 receptions, going for 1,034 yards with nine TDs. He also set OSU's single- season record for all-purpose yardage (2,328). A tough non-conference slate that includes TCU and Boise State may hinder the team's ability to exceed last season's eight-win total, but with the ultra-talented Rodgers' brothers on the field, anything is possible.

GREG SALAS, HAWAII

Playing in the WAC usually won't help a player in terms of national attention. Add to that the fact that he plays well off the mainland at the University of Hawaii and you can understand how this talented wideout has gone overlooked week-in and week-out. As a junior in 2009, Salas was among the nation's leaders, finishing with 106 receptions for 1,590 yards and eight TDs, leading the WAC in both receptions and receiving yards per game (fourth in the nation at 122.3 ypg). He plays the slot position for the Warriors and the 6-2 California native is as reliable an outlet as there is in FBS. Hawaii finished just under .500 last year (6-7) and if the team is to earn a winning season in 2010, you can bet Salas' fingerprints will be all over it.

TITUS YOUNG, BOISE STATE

A key cog for one of college football's most prolific offenses, Young burst on the scene as a junior in 2009, hauling in 79 balls for 1,041 yards and 10 TDs and becoming a go-to-guy for All-American QB Kellen Moore. Having Austin Pettis (63 balls for 855 yards and 14 TDs) on the other side doesn't hurt either, but Young is much more versatile, scoring three more TDs on the ground and another two on kick returns, while earning All-WAC First Team honors in 2009 as both a receiver and return specialist. What Young lacks in size (5-11, 170), he more than makes up for in playmaking ability. The Broncos could finish their stay in the WAC (they're moving to the Mountain West in 2011) with a national championship run. Look for Young to be a difference maker on a weekly basis.

OTHERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON: Austin Pettis (Boise State), Deonte Thompson (Florida), Leonard Hankerson (Miami-Florida), Alshon Jeffrey (South Carolina), Devier Posey (Ohio State), Niles Paul (Nebraska).

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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