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07/24/2007 - Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jon Lester began his courageous comeback from cancer by allowing five hits and two runs over six innings, and Manny Ramirez went 2-for-4 with a two-run double as Boston topped Cleveland, 6-2, in the opener of a four-game set at Jacobs Field.
Lester (1-0) struck out six and walked three in his first major-league start since a win over the Angels last August 23. He set down the final eight batters he faced and needed just 96 pitches to earn the win.
The 23-year-old was 7-2 with a 4.76 ERA in 15 starts with the Red Sox after being promoted from Pawtucket in June, 2006. The No. 1 prospect in the organization and Boston's first pick of the 2002 draft, Lester became the first Red Sox rookie lefty in club history to win his first five decisions.
However, his charmed season was cut short after that start against the Angels, when he was placed on the disabled list due to a sore back, an injury which led to a September diagnosis of a treatable form of anaplastic large cell lymphoma.
Lester underwent treatment and was then brought along slowly by Boston, which sent him to Single-A on a rehab assignment to begin the season. He then hit a minor bump in the road on May 2 when he experienced muscle cramping in his left forearm. After recovering from that injury, Lester was reinstated from the disabled list and optioned to Pawtucket, where he made 14 starts, before taking the place of the struggling Julian Tavarez in the rotation on Monday.
Coco Crisp finished 4-for-5 with three runs scored for the Red Sox, who have won four in a row. Dustin Pedroia had three hits and scored a run and Kevin Youkilis picked up a pair of hits, an RBI and a run scored.
Tribe hurler Jake Westbrook (1-6) was tagged for 10 hits and five runs with four walks and one strikeout in six innings. Grady Sizemore hit a two-run homer for the Indians, who have dropped two of three.
Sizemore's blast in the third made it 5-2, and Lester finally ran into trouble in the fourth. Ryan Garko led off with a double then Jhonny Peralta walked. After Franklin Gutierrez fanned, Kelly Shoppach walked to load the bases. Josh Barfield grounded into a force at home, then Lester blew a pitch by Sizemore to end the inning.
Cleveland would not threaten from that point with Lester on the hill.
Boston had runners on first and second with one out in the sixth and failed to score against Jensen Lewis, but tacked on a run in the ninth when Pedroia drove in Crisp with a single to restore their four-run lead at 6-2.
Manny Delcarmen, who was called upon to get the last out of the eighth, set the Indians down in order in the bottom of the frame to pick up his first major league save and preserve Lester's comeback victory.
The Sox gave Lester all the run support he needed early, loading the bases with none out in the first on singles by Crisp and Pedroia and a walk to Youkilis. Ramirez belted a double down the left-field line to score a pair, and J.D. Drew followed with an RBI single. Mike Lowell then grounded into a double play, but a run scored for a 4-0 lead.
Youkilis dropped a two-out single into right to score Crisp in the second.
Game Notes
Red Sox first baseman/designated hitter David Ortiz did not play, and remains day-to-day with a left shoulder strain suffered on Friday...The Sox are 11-5 at the Jake since the 2002 season...Westbrook has not won in his last seven starts, the longest stretch of his career...It was Crisp's third straight game with three or more hits...Tuesday's probables are Daisuke Matsuzaka for Boston and C.C. Sabathia for Cleveland...Garko extended his hit streak to 16 games, currently the longest in the American League...Sizemore leads the Indians with 18 home runs...Julio Lugo singled in the sixth inning for Boston to extend his hitting streak to 13 games.
<< Valentin's RBI single in the 12th leads Reds over Brewers
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pinch-hitter Javier Valentin's run-scoring
single in the 12th inning gave the Cincinnati Reds a 2-1 victory over the
Milwaukee Brewers in the opener of a four-game set at Great American Ball
Park.
<< Ginepri upset in Indy
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany's Michael Berrer upset seventh-
seeded American Robby Ginepri in three sets to advance to the second round at
the $575,000 Indianapolis Tennis Championships.
Berrer, a quarterfinalist last we
<< Kim shoots 62 to lead U.S. Girls' Junior
Lakewood, WA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Among other things, Kimberly Kim was worried
about losing her focus.
"I'll be putting for two minutes and I'll be kind of bored," she said.
But there was nothing boring about the 15-year-old Hawaiian's rou
<< Thomas homers twice as Blue Jays top Twins
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Frank Thomas hit a pair of two-run home runs as
the Toronto Blue Jays downed the Minnesota Twins, 6-4, in the opener of a
three-game set.
Thomas, who has 503 career home runs, is now just one home run b
Lester beats cancer, bests Indians >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jon Lester, the plucky 23-year-old Red Sox
hurler, completed a courageous comeback from cancer by allowing just
five hits and two runs over six innings to earn the win in Boston's 6-2
victory
Yanks remain hot, pound Royals >>
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Jorge
Posada each knocked in a pair of runs and Roger Clemens pitched seven solid
innings, as the streaking New York Yankees slammed the Kansas City Royals,
9-2, in
Houston's Pence out four-to-six weeks with chip fracture >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Hunter Pence underwent an MRI Monday that
revealed the National League Rookie of the Year candidate has a capsular
sprain in his right wrist and a chip fracture in that same wrist.
The injuries wi
Holliday, Hawpe homer in eighth to lift Rockies past Padres >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Matt Holliday hit a three-run homer in the
eighth inning to tie the game and Brad Hawpe's two-run homer in the same
inning put Colorado on top, as the Rockies came from behind to down San Diego,
7-5, in
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Trash talk has a place in every competitive endeavor (except baseball; those stirrup-wearers are too busy chewing on their sunflower seeds and their supplements to worry about what their opponents are doing).
Fantasy sports is no exception. Any intelligent discussion of the subject would probably start with a thesis statement or a definition of terms. Thankfully, this wont be an intelligent discussion.
Let me just say that I am happy to take a place in this space alongside my talented colleagues, even our commissioner. (You should see how she bleats like a demented paper boy about league fees on our fantasy site).
Trash talking, I would argue, is primarily about amusing your friends, their sheeplike demeanors and sloping foreheads notwithstanding. The best place I have found for football trash talking is at www.SportsAlarm.com.
Beyond the entertainment factor, though, I would recognize that the sophomoric ritual has one advantage, when properly applied. It magnifies your fantasy triumphs and mitigates your fantasy failures by transforming the eventual point total into an afterthought. Winning makes it seem like your opponent really is a truss-owning, lapel-pin-wearing nitwit. And in defeat, trash talk can be the air bag to break the fall from your hyperbolic heights. The plug-necked yahoos on your team, you can say, will be sacking groceries by the end of the season.
The best trash talk, in my view, is layered and nuanced. And it doesnt focus only on your opponents team. It picks apart your opponent. The idea is to create a shock-and-awe-scale blizzard of nonsense, and the goal is to make your opponent drop his hands from his keyboard in exasperation.
What team does your opponent root for? Accuse a Giants fan of having a Joe Namath pillowcase. Wheres your opponent from? Give a look of concern no matter his reply, then say, I'll try to type slower for you next time. Is your opponent into politics? Label everyone a tax-and-spend corporate shill.
Cap all that with a liberal application of irrelevance. For instance, dont just conclude by saying your opponent is a twerp who drafts like my grandmother. Say that your opponent is a sweater-wearing, eyebrow-plucking twerp who drafts his team about as well as Zsa Zsa Gabor gave acceptance speeches at the Oscars. By the time your foe makes sense of that, his starting running back will have had puppies.
But what about you? Hmm? Recall a memorable slam? Have a tried-and-true technique? Know someone who seems impervious to insult? Take a moment and tells us about it. Put together some (fit-for-publication) thoughts. You wont be too busy returning phone messages from your friends, Im sure, to reply.
In addition to the trash talking, the Sports Alarm has a huge gallery of high resolution pictures of beautiful women and models in bikinis. The most popular models are: Lindsay Lohan, Carrie Underwood, Alessandra Ambrosio, and Paris Hilton.
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